Saturday, April 23, 2011

An expensive learning curve.

I then completely immersed myself in betfair and the world of football betting and trading.
A process that cost me many hundreds of pounds.

Why didn't you paper trade your ideas first? I hear you say.
Well, greed and impatience to make lots of easy money!

My view is that paper trading deals with the mechanics and economics of testing your ideas but it can't simulate the real pressures that you will encounter when dealing with a situation that goes against you.
These situations happen frequently, it's all part of trading.
Everyone says have an exit plan/stop loss plan and be willing to take a small loss otherwise you will expose yourself to a big loss.
Very sound advice but here's why it may not work in practice...

Assume you've just started a new system and it's going ok.
You then get a situation that goes against you which is impossible to insure or hedge against.
You should get out with a small (maybe 50%) loss on your stake/liability at a predetermined point.
Now here's why you probably won't do it, even though you should:

1. You're in this to make money not lose it.

2. If it's before half time (or even after, it doesn't matter) there is the remainder of the game to come right.
    Everything tells you that is a perfectly rational thought and d'you know what? Some of the time you
    are quite likely to be correct.

3. You are an inexperienced trader and you are on your own. Nobody is there to advise or hold your hand.

However, losses are part of the business of trading, just make sure your losses over the medium term are not bigger than your profits or you are on the way to the poor house.

You are what you are. Make sure that you are entirely comfortable with what you are doing.
Recognise that people will brand you an irresponsible gambler and those losses will exacerbate any insecurities you have about trading.

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